I attended the sold-out Kern County Economic Summit today. The highlight of the annual event may be the presentation created by Dr. Abbas P. Grammy. Dr. Grammy is forecasting 2007 Kern County median home prices to go up by 2.5%. We shall hold his feet towards the fire with this one. Maybe he could be expecting a late rally this season? I’m guessing he’s got not considered the massive credit tightening, inventory tsunami flooding the neighborhood MLS or the significant upsurge in foreclosures and NOD’s? Also, our median HH income (adjusted for inflation) is equivalent to it had been in 2001, in accordance with his graphs, $38,600. However, our median price went from $93,400 in 2001 to $275,700 in 2006. Clearly, this rapid upsurge in prices had not been built on fundamentals, because the fundamental driver of home prices is HH income. This increase was built on cheap and easy credit and fueled by massive speculation.
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